Goals : Random Events

Time Machine
Never again. Thirty items in there, and I'm lacking most of them. One toy and 29 wardrobe items and learnies. I got the toy. Happened before. The chances are not even in these machines. Not gonna bother.


Pixie Dice : roll a 2 or a 12

There is a Foxfire Forest goal where you have to roll a 2 or a 12 - i.e., snake eyes or boxcars.

The chance of rolling a 1 on the first die is 1/6. The chance of rolling a 1 on the second die is also 1/6. So the chance of both happening is 1/36.

Similarly, the chance of rolling a 6 on both dice is also 1/36.

The chance of either of those two rolls happening is 1/36 + 1/36 = 1/18

So about every 18 times of playing Pixie Dice, the player should roll either a 2 or a 12.

The game is available every 16 hours, I probably do it once every 20 hours.

So I should win about every 18 * (20/24) = 15 days.

I have been working on that goal for months.

So, loaded dice. It's fun figuring out these things, anyways

(Only needed for Foxfire goals, not needed to get to Marada goal 75)


Seven Heaven : Win with 6+ Multiplier (roll 5 doubles)

The chance to roll 1 & 1 is 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36. Same for the other doubles.
The chance to roll any of the 6 possible doubles is 6 * (1/36) = 1/6
The chance to do that 5 times is 1/6 ** 5 = 1/7776

So, on the average, 7776 times. Less actually, since you have 9 rolls in which to get the 5 doubles. Let's say 7776 * 5 / 9 = 4320 times.

You can try every 3 hours, that's 8 tries/day, so that means an average of 4320/8 = 540 days, assuming you play every 3 hours.

IF you do it EVERY THREE HOURS, that's 1.5 years.

But no one is going to play the game EVERY 3 HOURS - since people have lives and sleep, 3 years is probably a better estimate ......

..... ahem .... IF you roll no 7s, ever ....

Yup, there's that part to the game as well. If you roll a 7, your game is over, even if it was your first roll. To get 5 doubles, you have to NOT roll a 7 at least 5 times - and 7 is the most common roll.

On the average, 1/6 of the time, the sum of the dice will be 7, and 5/6 of the time it will not be 7. So the chance of not getting a 7 in the first 5 rolls is (5/6) ** 5 = .402 - and 3 years /.402 = 7.4 years. And if you don't get 5 doubles in the first five rolls ....

So it will actually be a LOT longer than 3 years. Someone else can math it out properly, I'm too lazy Maybe later.

(Only needed for Nimbus goals, not needed to get to Marada goal 75)


Jackpot Pyramid

OK let's look at numbers here, too.
row 1 - should win once every 5 times
row 2 - should win once every 4 times
row 3 - should win once every 3 times
row 4 - should win once every 2 times

rows 1,2 - should win every 5*4 times (20)
rows 1,2,3 - should win every 5*4*3 times (60)
rows 1,2,3,4 - should win every 5*4*3*2 times (120)

So if you actually played every hour, it would take 5 days on the average to get all the way to the top (120/24=5). Realistically, I probably play it 6 times per day, not 24. Since that whould result in it taking 4 times as long to get a win (on the average), I should be getting a win every 20 days.

I have not had a win since early 2021.

--- More looking at numbers - how can the crystal ball work?

There are 5 blocks in the bottom row, so that's 20%, right?

How can the system know which block I'm going to click on, in order to improve my chances via a crystal ball?
Evidently the 5 blocks are just there as a visual gimmick, and that gimmick is reinforced by seeing the one you click get an icon put in it.

For the crystal ball to work, the effective area for the first click is the entire bottom row - if you click anywhere in that area the system does an RNG roll for you, nominally 20%. With a crystal ball the chance would be raised.

But what's happening is that the non-crystal-ball chances are now much lower than 20%, 25%, 33.33% and 50% - or else I would have gotten the the top many times in the last year. Before 2021, I did get to the top every few weeks. Since crystal balls were introduced, the chances of winning without a crystal ball are much, much less.

How much less ??
Six plays per day for 1 year would be 2190 tries. If that were the exact number of tries needed for a win, this would be roughly equivalent to having 11 blocks on the bottom row, 8 on row 2, 6 on row 3, and 4 on row 4. (11*8*6*4 = 2112, which is close to 2190)

That's still low - it's been over 1.5 years since my last win ... 365 * 1.5 * 6 = 3285 = my tries in 1.5 years.

Anyways, the picture is misleading. You have NOWHERE NEAR a 1/120 chance of winning, which is what the picture implies. Notice that the game does not state that you have a 1/120 chance. Never trust puzzle pictures ^_^

Again, fun to figure out. Doesn't really matter that much to me. But when people feel compelled to accomplish a goal and can't, it can make them find a different game to play.

(Only needed for Kamilah Desert goals, not needed to get to Marada goal 75)

Edit : 18 Sep 2022 - still no win, about 1.7 years now
Edit : 15 Jan 2023 - still no win

Power Station : get a prize when you pay the bill

I started Mara 15 years ago. Due to work, I had to quit for a while, and it ended up being a 9 year break. So I've been active for 6 years.

I've always had lots of items drop from paying Power Station bills - I sold a few pearls and trading cards, never bought any of the items.

I currently have 31 Zap items in my attic :
9 How to run a Power Station
11 Lightning Pearl
7 Zap Plushie
4 Zap Trading Card

My main pet has read the pamphlet, the trading card is in my battle deck, and 9 of my pets have eaten the pearl (they used to be cheap!). So that's 11 more items. Plus any I sold or used for missions.

I have not received even one prize since early 2021.

So, during the other 5 years of playing, I received over 42 items - an average of over 8 per year - then the items stopped dropping.

And look at the prices of the power station items - they have totally skyrocketed. There aren't many in galleries, can't blame greedy fairy collections.

I'm tired of people saying that the introduction of crystal balls changed nothing. It may have been inadvertent, but the change can't be denied.

-- Why is no amount paid shown any more, it used to be --

You have an Electricity Bill of MP3,693MP to pay
https://prnt.sc/bYP9yKvx6FzT
(says "You have paid your electricity bill of MarapointsMP", with no amount of MP shown, might this be tied into the probem?)

15 Oct 2022 - just paid a bill, and it's still happening - instead of telling me how much I paid, it said "You have paid your electricity bill of MarapointsMP" - and of course I received no item ..... why are fixes not happening ???

1 Jan 2021 (got a prize in late 2020, idk when. so counted it as this)
12 Nov 2022 : You now have Zap Trading Card in your Inventory (did not show amt pd)

(Only needed for City of Marada goals, not needed to get to Marada goal 75)


Get a Headless Costume

Decapitating Fairy : "Level 67 or higher players have their pets protected from injury and will win a Headless Costume item instead."

THIS SAYS THAT THE RATE OF DECAPITATION HAPPENING HAS NOT CHANGED - ONLY THAT FOR LEVEL 67+ PLAYERS, THE RESULT IS A COSTUME INSTEAD OF A BEHEADED PET

Well my pets were getting decapitated occasionally - until I hit level 67, at which point my (able-to-be-decapitated) pet was not decapitated AND I did not receive a headless costume.

I got to level 67 on 28 Feb 2022. I visit the decapitation fairy at least once per day, and as of 30 Oct 2022 have received not even one costume.

That's 8 months !! I doubt if there's any player under level 67 (that does the decapitation fairy regularly) that has not had a pet get decapitated in 8 months.

The statement by the fairy is a lie. At the rate my pets were getting decapitated, I should have at least 3-4 headless costumes by now. I don't know that it matters after level 67, but I still use a pet that can be beheaded (can wear the costume).

So, in a forum post I said that the Decapitation Fairy was broken as far as costumes, and was told by a mod that it is not broken and that the costumes have dropped for some players. I wonder how long ago that was.

Maybe at some point they dropped, but they are supposed to REPLACE a beheading which means drop at the same rate that beheadings happened. And that is NOT happening.

So actually, in the current time, when you hit level 67, your pet cannot lose its head, but the chances of getting a costume are much less than what the chances of decapitation were - and maybe the costumes no longer drop at all any more.

This is lame. This is not a reward for reaching a marada level, it is a punishment. Just let my pets get beheaded, if you're not going to let the costumes drop.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
It is now 2023, still no headless costume. BROKEN

Feb 2023 - ONE YEAR - still no headless costume

mid-Aug 2023, no costume or beheadings, just charisma

9 Jan 2024, no costume, ALMOST 2 YEARS since hitting level 67 ...

28 Feb 2024 - exactly TWO YEARS and still no headless costume .... the wording says INSTEAD of getting beheaded, you get a costume, that implies that the rate of a successfull outcome did not change, only that the reward changed from beheading to getting a costume. Until I reached -whatever level- I got pets beheaded a few times every year, not getting the costume is a PENALTY for reaching a higher progress goal, and the text at the top of the page is a lie.


RNG in Games

Years ago, I was one of 3 devs in a larger game. We ended up altering straight RNG in some cases - we tempered it. Why? Because the tails of a gaussian can be deadly.

If some players have lots of luck with RNG, the ones in the middle of the distribution are somewhat OK with it, realizing that luck is random.

But in the other tail are the players with perpetual bad luck. They got frustrated - complained that "XX and YY always win but I never do" (they were correct) - some quit the game and others quit supporting it financially.

So we tempered RNG, using different methods for different situations, so that there were no longer big winners and big losers.

When I hear stories about Mara players having to wait years to pass a goal, I cringe. The system should not be penalizing a RNG-picked subset of the playerbase, and it is totally wrong to expect people with "bad RNG" to have to buy expensive crystal balls to be able to catch up with the lucky players.

Note: This is for tempering RNG, not for making sure players that are more skilled than others at a minigame are PREVENTED from winning - whether it's a game of reflexes or a game of logic.


Waiting .........

I have been waiting patiently on many random events, one for over 18 months
- job promotion
- 2/12 at pixie dice
- get a prize from powerstation bill
- get to top of jackpot pyramid

Every time I see that banner encouraging me to move up in marada levels, it irritates me.

Why is the system telling me to move up when it is preventing me from doing so?

I suspect it is to slow players down from reaching 75, because the more reach 75, the more obvious is the lack of goals past 75. And there is no explanation for that lack.

Edit ... I finally got a job promotion and was at marada 75 in minutes. Finally ^_^. The promotions problem remains, though.